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Forecasting the Teaching Workforce

FORECASTING THE TEACHING WORKFORCE IN LITHUANIA

This pilot project, to develop a teacher workforce model, was commissioned by the Office of the Government of Lithuania and the Ministry of Education and Science as part of ongoing reforms of the education system. Wide-ranging reforms of the systems of management, career planning and financing of education and science in Lithuania are currently being implemented. One of the priorities of the reform agenda is “The Development and Implementation of Career and Professional Training System for Teachers”. In this context, a project group was assembled and technical support was requested from the European Commission. Project team members from the Ministries and the Research and Higher Education Monitoring and Analysis Centre (MOSTA) worked together with experts from the Structural Reform Support Programme of the European Commission, the Department for Education in England and University College Cork in Ireland throughout the project timeline.

Planning teacher demand and supply is one of the central concerns in education. Anticipating shortages in specific teaching subjects and/or other areas of education in the future is crucial for the preparation and implementation of initial teacher training programmes. In order to accommodate demographic and other exogenous challenges, strategic decisions need to be made well in advance. Teachers are key to the learning process, therefore, projecting the size of the teaching population that needs an investment in preparation, skills and continuous support is important. By steering strategic decisions towards quality in teaching, policy-makers strive to ensure that all children in the future receive learning opportunities in the most efficient way.

The aim of the teacher workforce planning project, implemented in 2017-2018, is to set up a pilot forecasting model that provides short term and midterm forecasts on teacher need. The pilot project aims to find solutions for an annual working cycle that incorporates processes such as data collection, model renewal, stakeholder consultation and other essential system elements. The goal of the system is to provide insights and recommendations on the size of the future teaching workforce that accommodates changes in pupil numbers, ageing teaching population and other changes in the most efficient way. Based on the forecasting results, policy recommendations are provided.

This project contributes to the series of measures used to inform decision-making in educational planning in Lithuania. In addition, it aims to strengthen the culture of transparency among the educational community and to open a platform for dialogue. The project team strongly believes that decisions undertaken must be based on evidence that is clear and thoroughly explored with the system stakeholders. During the course of the pilot project, a series of events, workshops and discussions were held to which the various stakeholders were invited.  The project team hopes that this approach has provided a solid basis for consultation for the future.

pedagogai lentele

MODEL

Teacher Forecast Model (Lithuanian)

PROJECT DOCUMENTS

Project description, 26th October,  2017 (English)

Interim results 8th March, 2018 (English, Lithuanian)

Forecasting system and scenarios 28th June, 2018 (Lithuanian)

Final report „Forecasting the Teaching Workforce in Lithuania“ (English)

 Summary of Final report (English)

MEETING DOCUMENTS

7th November, 2017 Stakeholder Meeting

Agenda (English)

Presentation (English):
The Teacher Supply Model for England
Teacher Supply and Demand in Ireland
Modelling Teaching Workforce need
Teaching Workforce Forecast System
Teacher Education: Initial Teacher Training & Policy Change

Meeting report (English)

10th April, 2018 Workshop

Agenda (English)

Presentations (Lithuanian)
Pedagogų poreikio formavimas: kompetencijos, darbo krūvis ir karjera
Pedagogų poreikio prognozavimo sistema

Workshop report (English)

28th June, 2018 Dissemination Event

Agenda and presentations

Dissemination event report (English)